WASHINGTON — U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple economists' forecasts, the Labor Department said Friday, a hiring surge that flipped trader expectations for this month's Federal Reserve meeting from a rate cut to a possible rate hike and drew a public demand from President Trump that the Fed move the other way.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report repriced Wall Street's expectations for the Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting. Odds of a rate hike rose to above 60 percent on the CME Group's FedWatch tool from 49.4 percent a day earlier, and the S&P 500 fell 0.28 percent in mid-morning trading. The central bank has held its benchmark rate between 3.5 percent and 3.75 percent since July, its fifth straight meeting without a change.
The number
Economists polled by FactSet had projected 65,000 new jobs. LSEG's poll produced 56,000; Dow Jones's, 53,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, with seven million people out of work, according to the BBC.
Hiring was concentrated in two areas typically active at the end of summer. Food services and drinking places added 59,000 positions, well above the 12,000 monthly average of the prior year, and local government education added 42,000 as teachers returned to schools. Manufacturing added 16,000, construction 22,000 and health care 13,000. Information employment fell by 23,000, with losses at companies providing computing infrastructure, data processing and web hosting.
The July payroll figure, originally reported as a loss of 23,000 jobs, was revised to a gain of 21,000, and June was revised up by 11,000. Together, the two months are 55,000 stronger than first reported.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier, unchanged from July and, according to CBS News, the slowest pace since May 2021. Inflation stood at 3.4 percent in July, above the Fed's 2 percent target. The Consumer Price Index reading for August is due Sept. 11, five days before the rate decision.
On the Street
"Even the most committed dove would struggle to find anything in the August employment report to justify keeping interest rates unchanged," Stephen Brown, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said in comments cited by the BBC. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer of Premier Miton, told the BBC that "A hike in rates just became a bit more likely."
Wells Fargo economist Jennifer Timmerman called the release a payroll "blowout" that provided "evidence of a stable labor market heading into the fall, supporting resilient consumer spending but also raising market expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike amid unacceptably high inflation," according to NBC News. Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, told CBS News in an email, "What a 'wow' jobs report."
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said the outcome ultimately turns on inflation. "An upside surprise in payrolls will likely ramp up concerns about a rate hike, but that outcome is in the hands of next week's inflation numbers," she told Fox Business.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell in late May, opened the door to a hike at the Jackson Hole conference last week, saying the central bank would have "work to do" if price pressures did not ease.
Trump's demand
Trump used Truth Social on Friday morning to press for the opposite move, calling on the Fed to "Lower the interest rates" and saying the United States should have "the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World." He directed his message at Warsh, whom he installed this year, writing that "The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart - BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won't allow that to happen!"
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, called the report a "blockbuster" in an interview with NBC News and said Trump "has high regard" for Warsh and "respects the independence of the Fed," despite the president's post.
The counterpoint
Not every economist read the August surprise as a case for tightening. Adam Schickling, senior U.S. economist at Vanguard, told Fox Business the report "is unlikely to materially change the Federal Reserve's outlook on its own," because the inflation trajectory carries more weight than any single month of employment data. NBC News noted that August payrolls often get revised later in the year because of seasonal-adjustment quirks. Rep. Bobby Scott of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, said in a statement carried by Fox Business, "The numbers are clear: President Trump's economy is not working for workers. Inflation has outpaced wage growth in recent months. And American workers are taking home a smaller slice of the economic pie than they have in the past 70 years."
What to watch
The August Consumer Price Index arrives Sept. 11. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Sept. 15-16.

