WASHINGTON — Iran and Oman have agreed on the geographic coordinates for a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's foreign ministry said Thursday, even as vessel traffic through the world's most important oil chokepoint fell to its thinnest levels of the war and Iran's parliament began reviewing a bill that would ban American, Israeli and other "hostile" vessels outright.
The dual moves — a Tehran-Muscat handshake on a lane-splitting arrangement narrower than the deal U.S. officials described Tuesday, coupled with a legislative track that could formalize a bar on Western ships — pushed Brent crude up nearly 4 percent Thursday, according to CBS News, and left the outlines of an eventual reopening more contested than they appeared 48 hours ago, when President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an announcement was imminent.
What was agreed
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the "geographical coordinates of the route" had been agreed with Oman, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi later told the same agency the new route would be temporary, remaining open for two to four months. The BBC, citing the ministry, said the deal was "in the final stages" and that Oman and the White House had not commented.
The proposed lane, first floated after a June 17 memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran collapsed within days, would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf, Reuters reported. Iran is seeking fees of between 5 percent and 7 percent of cargo value from ships transiting the strait, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters. Oman is discussing about 3 percent; Washington wants no fees at all.
Traffic thins
Shipping through the chokepoint, which carried about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, has all but stopped. Fewer than 10 ships per day crossed between Sunday and Tuesday, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler, and only eight transited Tuesday. Al Jazeera, citing shipping data, said 33 vessels made the passage between Monday and Thursday, down from 50 the previous week.
The U.S. Central Command said its blockade of Iranian ports, reinstated in mid-July, has now redirected 49 vessels, one more than the day before. Iran has demanded that all shipping seek permission before transiting and has fired at vessels using a U.S.- and Oman-approved corridor.
Parliament weighs a bar
An Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill that would forbid U.S., Israeli and other "hostile" ships from transiting the strait, Iran's Fars news agency reported, citing an unnamed lawmaker. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran's chief negotiator, mocked Trump's cadence on X Thursday: "'Massive attack coming … wait, never mind, they want to negotiate.' That's theater diplomacy on loop." Ghalibaf added that "Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy."
The White House message
Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday after signing executive orders, would not say a deal had been reached but described the strait as "sort of open right now."
"We control it, but they can always shoot something, they always have something, or drop a mine, and if you have one mine out there you sort of mess things up, because people don't want to take their billion-dollar boats and accidentally get hit by a mine, but I think we're doing very well," Trump said, according to CBS News.
He predicted the war would end soon. "I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don't think they can go much longer," Trump said, telling reporters he was involved in negotiations with Tehran. Iran denies any direct channel with Washington and says it is speaking only with Oman.
The skeptics
Analysts who cover the region said the White House's timeline was running ahead of the diplomacy. Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera: "Nothing has changed. President Trump has promised to annihilate Iran five or six times and then backs down."
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the president's habit of announcing and then cancelling strikes was corroding the space for a settlement. "I think this has become somewhat of a tiresome pattern," Parsi told Al Jazeera. "At some point, all credibility for negotiations is going to be lost."
David Des Roches, a former director of Arabian Peninsula affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, said Washington would likely have to give ground on the sovereignty question. "I think that the rough outlines of a deal are that Iran would deny free international passage in areas of its territorial waters," Des Roches told Al Jazeera.
Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute added a military caveat, telling Al Jazeera: "The fact is it's more dangerous for US military personnel to operate in the region as a result of these missile shortages."
What to watch
Trump was scheduling a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday to discuss Iran, U.S. officials told CBS News. If the parliamentary bill advances in Tehran and the coordinates deal is signed, oil traders will be pricing a strait that is technically reopened but legally closed to U.S. and Israeli flags — and still charging a fee.