President Trump said he is unlikely to extend the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire when it expires on "Wednesday evening Washington time," according to an interview with Bloomberg released Monday, pushing the Islamabad diplomatic track into a 48-hour window even as Iran's parliament speaker threatened to unveil "new cards on the battlefield."

The harder line closes off the cushion markets and Gulf shippers had penciled in. Trump coupled the expiry warning with a vow not to lift the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports until a deal is reached, and told Bloomberg that if talks fail, "If there's no deal, I would certainly expect" fighting to resume.

What is new

Monday's refusal by Iran's foreign ministry to send a delegation to Islamabad, reported here yesterday, has hardened into a war of words. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that Trump was "imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire" and trying to turn the table into "a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering." Ghalibaf added that over the past two weeks Iran had "prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield," without elaborating.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the first round on April 12 with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is expected to land in Pakistan again Tuesday with officials from the National Security Council, State Department and Pentagon, Fox News reported. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters Monday that "If the U.S. sends a team to Islamabad, that is a matter that concerns them," and Reuters reported Tuesday, citing Iranian state television, that no Iranian delegation had departed.

Hormuz and markets

The standoff is tightening the chokepoint the ceasefire had been expected to loosen. Iran on Saturday reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, reversing a reopening announced April 17, while the U.S. Navy over the weekend fired on and seized an Iran-flagged cargo ship attempting to bypass the blockade. Iran's foreign ministry accused Washington of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel and demanded the release of its crew, CNBC reported. The chokepoint normally carries 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil and gas.

"Any escalation, particularly military action around Hormuz, could trigger a renewed spike in oil prices and a broad risk-off move," Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research, told CNBC, noting that the murky outlook on peace talks had left markets guessing on when Hormuz energy shipments could resume.

Counterpoint

Al Jazeera's Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said Iran has "tried to keep the door ajar to diplomacy, so there is still a possibility" of attendance, suggesting the parliament speaker's rhetoric is posture rather than a final break. Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat who helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal, told CNBC the "best possible, realistic outcome" was an agreement on general principles and an extension of the ceasefire — an outcome Trump's Monday comments now pointedly rule out.

The ceasefire was agreed on the evening of April 7. Washington time Wednesday evening is the next marker; Trump said on Friday that Iran had agreed to hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a claim Tehran denied within hours.